报告时间：2019年5月23日（星期四）14:00-15:30

报告地点：翡翠湖校区科教楼B座1008室

报 告 人：孙小津 助理教授

工作单位：美国德克萨斯大学艾尔帕索分校

举办单位：经济学院

报告人简介：

孙小津，美国德克萨斯大学艾尔帕索分校经济学助理教授，研究方向包括实证宏观经济学，房屋市场经济学和应用计量经济学。研究成果发表在Journal of Money、Credit and Banking、Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics、Economics Letters、Empirical Economics等期刊。

报告简介：

In the lecture, the presenter studies examines large price run-ups with potential subsequent crashes and large price declines with potential subsequent rebounds in state-level and metropolitan-area-level housing markets in the U.S. over the past 40 years. We find that a sharper run-up in house prices predicts a higher probability of a crash, but a sharper decline does not necessarily predict a higher probability of a rebound. Changes in the effective interest rate in the local market can predict housing returns following large price run-ups, while it is harder to use the same factors to predict returns following large price declines. Such characteristics are robust to different thresholds of price movements.